I had another good day betting yesterday. Amwager has a feature that I am starting to like a lot. That is a dutch payoff setup. I can handicap an exacta box or key. Once I enter my choices in the Amwager interface I can then choose the amount I want to win if I am correct. For instance, lets say I have a three horse box and wish to win $200. The system will automatically bet the amount on each combination that will get me to $200.

a) 1-2   $40 
b) 2-1   $30


Bet a will be $10
bet b will be $12

For a total of $22 bet to return $200.

Of course, you have to keep an eye on the payouts to ensure that you are not betting too much in regards to the payout.

On a different note, there is another handicapping book that is now out that is worth reading. Besides Dr Z's book mentioned yesterday, Barry Meadows has a new book out: "The Skeptical Handicapper". It has a solid discussion of angles and how many races constitute a fair sample. Too many times, a person will find something that works profitably for a short time. This leads one to think he has found the secret of racing. However, continue with the angle and one will give all the profits back and then some. The original sample was too small to make a fair assessment.

I am going to hopefully start posting to his blog again. I have been away for far too long. The last two summers at Saratoga I have the good fortune to visit with William Ziemba otherwise known as Dr. Z. I had been a fan of his for several years and have made good money following his system. He and Ted Craven of RDSS may cohost a seminar this summer in Saratoga Springs during Alabama weekend. If it comes to fruition, it is a must attend as both of these men have a solid grasp of horseracing and what it takes to be a winner.

Also Mr Ziemba has a new book out on betting exotics. I was fortunate to get an advance copy last summer from Mr Ziemba. The book is a great read and I found it very enlightening. Well worth reading and studying. It is available in hardcover, paperback and on Kindle.

Also last fall I opened up and account with NHPlay and Amwager. This is my first experience with a rebate shop. So far, it is very impressive. I have been betting very lightly because it tax season and I am also a tax preparer. For example, my last two bets have been trifectas and both have been winners. One was at Mahoning Valley Racetrack and paid 25-1. The other one was at Charlestown and paid off at 4-1. The rebates however bring them into a realm of bettability. I can understand better now the lure of rebates. Even though the Charlestown payoff was small, with the rebate I made approx 14% on my bet. Now, I see why the big rebate players just try to break even and live off the rebates.

Charles Town

Shared Belief ventures out of Southern California for the first time. I think they picked a tough race for that. Although he is by far the best horse in the field, I think he is facing a tough matchup here. There is not a lot of speed for him to run against. So he will have to be a little closer to the front than normal to have a chance. I am uncomfortable betting horses that may be out of their comfort zone. Moreno should get the front end. However, he may be comprised by the poorly handled Vyjack. I have a lot of respect for Rudy Rodriguez and he is a friend of mine but as I told him in Saratoga last year, this horse should not be running further than a mile. Therefore if Shared Belief falters at all, I think that longshot Warrioroftheroses can pick up the pieces. Bet 1 unit on #8 to win and 1 unit on 4,8/2,4,6,8 in the exacta. Bet two units on 4,8 exacta box.

NYRA ticket policy

As those who have following this blog know, I have not been enamored of the NYRA ticket policy of late. As a credited member of the press, I should be able to purchase tickets without the need to purchase an unneeded admission. However, it is now been a month since I complained and I have yet to get a response to my email. I guess I should take to heart what I was told in an email last year. That is, the seats belong to NYRA and I should be thankful that I am allowed to purchase them at all. My response is that they are right but I do not need to purchase seats at all.

Fridays race will be the 7th at AQU. This race has only six horses but not a lot of speed. I think the #6 horse may very well be able to wire this field. Since the ML odds on the #6 are 6-1 he warrants a win bet. Bet a 3 unit exacta box of 2,3,6. and 2 units p/w exacta of 6/2,3,4and 1 unit exacta p/w of 2,3,4/6.

Thursday's race will be the 7th at Aqueduct. This is a seven horse claiming field. After eliminating the #3 and the #4, I am left with five horses. I prefer three horses here: #2, #5 and #6. The #2 and the #6 have faced each other twice and the #6 has won both ties. I see no reason why that should change today. Bet #6 to win. Bet a 6-2 exacta for 3 units, a 2-6 exacta for 2 units, a 6-5 exacta for 2 units and a 5-6 exacta for 1 unit.

So, lets try handicapping a race. Wednesday, April 8, 2015, AQU Race 4. This is a mile race with almost no speed.I think that the #1 horse will inherit the lead almost by default. What makes this interesting is that all of the horses except for number 4 are coming out of the same race back  on Feb 11. In that race, the #2 horse was the favorite and the #6 nearly wired the field with #1 a close third. I think the finish will be reversed today. Bet #1 to win and key it in exactas top and bottom with the #3 and the #6 horse.